The current annualized inflation of 8% is going to continue to rise.

I identified the Biden-caused oil/gas price rise as the primary cause of the current global inflation which will undergird about eight years of inflation as the consequences play out in steel, cement and fertilizer. The price rise will work its way through the economy with a ratchet effect in wages.

Now we see the Phillips curve kick in.  The Phillips curve isn’t me, it was William Phillips who showed a statistical correlation between rising labor scarcity and rising inflation.

We currently have a very historically low unemployment rate which is labor scarcity.  This will begin kicking in to the inflation scenario.  The labor scarcity is due to three primary factors.  

• The first and most important is that many workers dropped out of the labor force during Covid-19 when they decided that the service industry was too precarious and sought training and opportunities in other fields.  
• The second was a sheer drop out of the labor force with the realization that the American work standard is too intense for comfort and easier living was a reasonable goal. 
• Third is the close income competition created by government largess that means middle-income workers saw that non-workers were earning nearly as much and decided to join the non-workers on the dole.

Inflation will be increasing.