I was trained as an economist but have never practiced as one.  

I’ve observed three unexpected economic phenomena from the Covid lockdown. 

First, about 50% of the labor force works for businesses with 50 or less employees.  These businesses, 50 and under, were the most hard hit by the Covid restrictions. These include sole proprietors, grooming, exercise, yoga-type classes and much retail such as flower stores and restaurants.  Total employment in the U.S. in 2019 was 163 million people. For the whole Covid year of 2020 that dropped by 2 million to an average of 161 million.  

The GDP for 2019 was $21.4 trillion and the total for 2020 was $21 trillion. 

Lesson: The 2 million people who worked in 2019 but not in 2020, due to Covid restrictions, produced 1.9% of America’s GDP.  Nearly all of them were in businesses with under 50 employees and were considered ‘non-essential’ by the Covid definition.

Large businesses with economies of scale turn out to be the main source of U.S. productive wealth.

The U.S. economy is very robust and barely affected by a pandemic.

Second, the U.S. economy generates net income from overseas. This is regardless of the domestic economic output.  Roughly 2.4% of our GDP comes from our net foreign dealings.  This net income from overseas was constant in 2020, which explains why areas receiving income from the global Internet in places like California, particularly San Francisco and the S.F. Peninsula saw tax revenues and home prices rise.

Third, the Trump deregulation was a long-term power in stimulating the economy.  There is no convincing evidence of this. I have only two weak pieces of confirmation.

• One is my thirty years of consulting to over 1,500 small businesses and roughly 500 larger companies.  It is clear to me that regulatory restrictions are a significant  burden on business growth and innovation. 
• Another is my knowledge of business cycles dating back to the Civil War.  The current recovery is 132 months long, so far. The longest American recovery, indisputably.  The longest previous recovery was 120 months from 1991 to 2001. That previous recovery was generated by the end of the Cold War that released vast resources from the U.S. military.